Sunday, October 16, 2005

Foxwoods via Bahamas !!!, and folding AA

The blinds are 1k-2k with 100 ante, there are 12 players left in the tournament. You are in the big blind with 24k. A complete maniac in MP the big stack in the table raises to 100k for the nth time. Folded to you and you have AA. Do you call?
What !! Are you nuts David, of course you have to call !!!
Not so fast, this was a $650 satellite to Bahamas, 1st-11th would win a 12,000 package to Bahamas, 12th pace, 225 dollars. You have this guy in your table that is going all in every hand because his stack is so big. So, if you call and lose, you're out in 12th place. Even with your low chips, you're third in your table, 3 guys have less than you, 2 of them with less than half your chips, and in the other table there are at least other 3 guys with less chips than you. AA is a 85% favorite to win a showdown against a random hand. Is this edge big enough to call in this situation? The answer is no, this is a clear fold; the 3 guys at your table have to play as soon as possible, 2 of them twice before it's your turn. The odds of somebody losing one of these showdowns are greater than your 85%. The short stacks played great in my table, and in fact it was a guy in the other table the one who busted out, poor guy, terrible place to finish. I was just happy to finish this tourney, the bubble took so long and I was so drained, I'm so tired that I'm taking this Sunday off and not playing the big tournaments. This is the second Bahamas package I won this week, I'm using $10,200 of the $12,000 to buy in for the WPT tournament in Foxwoods next November, Poker Stars give you that option. So I'm pretty happy to win my entry to two WPT tournaments this week. This rush is just unbelievable and I hope it continues at least for 50 years more :) .

4 comments:

netox said...

increible!! es por eso que leo esta pagina, realmente estoy aprendiendo bastante aqui!!! Quien tiraria AA preflop!!!
Excelente!!! Felicidades David!!!

ghamal said...

very nice. You should post this in 2+2 so we can have a new rash of "when is it right to fold AA preflop" posts ;-)

Congrats on the Bahamas & Foxwoods!

Chris Fargis said...

I folded QQ twice in one orbit in a similar super situation a couple months ago. One was on the button when no one had entered the pot! Supers are strange.

Nice run you're on. Congrats.

David (sirio11) said...

Thanks Netox,dwe and Chris. By the way Chris, nice showing in the PS 500k. I saw the bad luck you had with the QQ.