Monday, February 26, 2007

Handicapping the Oscars

Pretty good night in general, just disappointed by Cars and Pan's. Specially Pan's, it's pretty difficult to understand how a foreign language movie win 3 Oscars and can't win the foreign language category, just weird, but I kind of see this coming, and that was the reason I didn't bet a lot in Pan's Labyrinth despite the fact it was the movie I liked the most last year. I think The Departed won just because of Scorsese, I'm still happy for him, since he's a great director and has several masterpieces (The Departed not being one of them). I think The Departed won't be remembered as a great movie with the years and Pan's Labyrinth will stand the test of time. It's such a wonderful film.

I won like 28 units in the Oscars, and with the 35 units I won in the Golden Globes; that's a pretty good 63 units from movie awards season.

I think I'm a professional movie awards handicapper now, who the hell needs poker :) .

Sunday, February 25, 2007

My Oscar bets

These are the bets I placed all over for the Oscars:

Best Picture:

Babel: 5.7 units to win 21.5 units
The Departed: 7.4 units to win 10.02 units

If Babel, I win 14.14 units; if Departed I win 4.5 units; any other I lose 13 units.

Best Actor:

Forrest Whitaker: 25.15 units to win 5.65 units

Best Actress:

Mirren: 10 units to win 0.5 units

Best Supporting Actor:

Alan Arkin: 3 units to win 9.8 units
Eddie Murphy: 5.1 units to win 4 units

If Arkin, I win 4.7 units; If Murphy, I win 1 unit; any other I lose 8.1 units.

Best Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Hudson: 31.3 units to win 7.85 units

Best Director:

Martin Scorsese: 20 units to win 4 units

Best Foreign Language Film:

Pan's Labyrinth: 4 units to win 1 unit

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Departed: 3.35 units to win 1 unit

Best Animated feature:

Cars: 11.64 units to win 4.4 units

Best Live Action Short Film:

West Bank Story: 4 units to win 20 units
Binta y la gran idea: 5 units to win 7.85 units

If West Bank Story, I win 15 units; if Binta I win 3.85 units; any other, I lose 9 units.

Best case scenario: I win 58 units
Worst case scenario: I lose 125.7 units

All this based in my analysis in the post below.

Go West Bank Story !!!
Go Babel !!!!

Oscar Predictions

Best picture:

This is between Departed, Babel and LMS. I think it really hurts LMS to not have a best director nomination, the last time a movie won without it, Driving Miss Daisy in 1989. It also doesn't have a editing nomination, last time a movie won without it, 1980, Ordinary people. Departed is the odds makers favorite, but I don't think the academy love it too much, since they just nominate Wahlberg in the acting categories despite having a terrific ensemble, besides Departed is just a movie about gangsters and the academy love movies with a "deep message", so, I'm going with Babel

My prediction: Babel

Best director:

This is Scorsese's award to lose, despite the Departed not being one of his best (3?,5?,10?) movies, this is the chance for the academy to recognize him.

My prediction: Martin Scorsese (The Departed)

Possible upset: Paul Greengrass (United 93)

Best Leading Actor:

Forrest Whitaker has won basically all the important actor awards and I think the only reason he has no Helen Mirren's status as a super favorite, it's because Peter O'Toole is in the race. It will be O'Toole 8th nomination, he has not won once, despite the fact he won an honorary Oscar recently. I still think the good sense will prevail and the academy will award excellent actor Forrest Whitaker. Now, if only he could give a coherent speech ....

My prediction: Forrest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland as Idi Amin

Possible upset: Peter O'Toole

Best Leading Actress:

Do we really need to write something about this category? This is the lock of the century.

My Prediction: Helen Mirren - The Queen as Queen Elizabeth II

Possible Upset: Terrorists bombing the Kodak Theater before the announcement.

Best Supporting Actor:

Eddie Murphy has won almost all the important precursors, he is the favorite, but if the academy decides awarding 3 of the 4 acting awards to black people is just too much, Eddie is the weakest link. Besides Alan Arkin is a white old man, like a good segment of the academy, and his performance in Little Miss Sunshine is really good. I'm going with the 2nd favorite.

My prediction: Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine as "Grandpa Edwin Hoover"

Possible upset: Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children)

Best Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Hudson is the big favorite here, but it has happened before. Lauren Bacall was the big favorite in 1996, she won almost all the awards before, just to lose the Oscar to Juliette Binoche, hell, Juliette was even surprised, she didn't even have a speech !!. But I just don't see a Juliette this year, so, I'm going with Effie White.

My prediction: Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls as "Effie White"

Possible upset: Adriana Barraza (Babel)

Best Foreign Language Film:

Pan's Labyrinth was the best film I saw in 2006, I think it should be nominated for best picture. Pan's has 6 Oscar nominations which is unheard of for a Foreign Language movie, and it has a shot to be one of the most awarded movies in the night, so it's clearly the front runner in this category. It has won also the most precursors. Having said that, again, it has happened before, in 2001 Amelie had multiple nominations and still lost to Bosnia's No Man's Land. This year the upset could come from the German Film The Lives of Others which has been as critically acclaimed as Pan's and the Academy may want to reward both films, since Pan's is going to win at least one Oscar in some other categories.

My prediction: Pan's Labyrinth - Mexico

Possible upset: The Lives of Others - Germany

More predictions:

Original Screenplay: Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Adapted Screenplay: William Monahan, The Departed
Animated Feature: Cars
Cinematography: Children of Men
Art Direction: Pan's Labyrinth
Visual Effects: Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Costume: Dreamgirls
Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth
Editing: Babel
Score: The Queen
Sound: Dreamgirls
Song: "I need to wake up" An Inconvinient Truth
Sound Editing: Letters From Iwo Jima
Documentary Short: The Blood Of Yingzhou District
Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth
Animated Short: The Little Matchgirl
Live Action Short: West Bank Story