Friday, December 01, 2006

November results

I played just 8 tournaments in November and played a grand total of 0 hours in cash games. All the tournaments I played were Stars tournaments, this is the list:

11/21/06 PS NLH $200+15 3088 out of 6733
11/26/06 PS NLH $200+15 194 out of 1050
11/28/06 PS NLH Rebuys $100+9 (Spent $309) 165 out of 197
11/28/06 PS NLH $100+9 49 out of 377
11/28/06 PS NLH $150+12 372 out of 956
11/30/06 PS NLH $300+20 558 out of 758
11/30/06 PS NLH $100+9 60 out of 270
11/30/06 PS NLH Rebuys $100+9 (Spent $309) 5 out of 167, FT, won $3,984.50

ITM: 1/8 FT: 1/8 Total Spent: $1748 (Rake: $98) Total won: $3,984.50 Profit: $2,236.50

I luckboxed my way to the FT in the last tournament I played in the month, besides that the rest of them were the usual amount of frustration. One good thing is I finished in the black and I'm ready to work in December, my goal is to play at least 100 tourneys. Let's see if I do it.

Sunday, November 26, 2006

Stack size and calling an all in when reraised

Lurking in the 2+2 forum archives I found this post I made more than a year ago. Hope you like it and provide some comments about it:


Stack size and calling an all in when reraised (essay). 05/31/05 01:38 AM

This is a usual question in this forum. What is the size of your stack such that you're in desperate mode, or basically commited to call all in when somebody reraise you.

Lets suppose the size of your stack is S = 12x, x = big blind; and you decide to open raise in MP to 4x, and somebody reraise you to 12x, should you call?

The analysis is pretty simple. You need to call 8x for a 18x (12x + 4x and lets suppose there are 2x in the pot to begin with, this varies from 0.5x to 2.5x). So you have odds of 8 to 18 or 1 to 2.25. So basically your hand needs to be 100/(1+2.25) = 30% or better against your opponent range. These are pretty good odds, even with a hand like KJo you're 34% against a range of AA-55, AK-AT, KQ. Even with a AA-88, AK-AQ range, you're 32%, so you need to call.

Now, lets suppose S = 24x, same scenario and you're reraised all in or close to it in practice, like somebody reraised to 20x, you know you're going all in anyway. Now you need to call 20x for a 30x pot, giving you odds of 1:1.5 , now your hand needs to be 100/2.5 = 40% or better; against AA-88,AK-AQ you can not call with KJo, what about AJs? Nope, just 35%. Even AQo is 36.5%, you need better than AQs (39.8%) in this spot vs such range.

Now, lets do the analysis in general for this situation, your stack = S, if you raise to 4x and need to call all in, you need to call S-4 to win a S+6 pot. Then your odds are 1 to (S+6)/(S-4) doing some elementary math, this is 1 + 10/(S-4). With this fraction is easy to see that if you want 1:2 odds, then S=14. Then basically, anytime you're behind the 14x mark, you need to choose a hand to go all in that is just better than 33%.

We can even generalize this result. Instead of raising to 4x, lets suppose you raise to Mx and reraised all in. Now you need to call S - M for a S + M + 2 pot; then your odds are 1 to

(S+M+2)/(S-M) = (S-M+2M+2)/(S-M) = 1 + (2M+2)/(S-M)

Now if you want to get 1:2 odds then (2M+2)/(S-M) = 1

this is 2M+2 = S-M this is M = (S-2)/3 !!! ... (sirio's raising factor )

Then you can manipulate the odds you're getting with your raise (how nice is that!!), if S = 14 then M = 4 is optimal to get 1:2 ; and if your stack = 17x, then M = 5 is the optimal raise to get 1:2 odds.

Comments?

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

A humility lesson from the Mathematical Olympiad I can use for poker

As you could see by my lack of posting I have not played any poker at all in the last 3 weeks. All my energy has been used in training students for the National Mathematical Olympiad in Mexico and then going to the contest in the city of Zacatecas.
I started teaching at the high school level in 1987 (I was a pretty young high school teacher at 17), I started teaching at the college level since 1992 and I have been involved as a professor in the Olympiad contests since 1991, I've been pretty successful in those since some of my students have won State, National and International contests since then. The Golden age was the period between 1995 and 1997, when the State (Chihuahua) I was responsible for the academic training won the National Contest 3 years in a row, something unheard of at the time. The win in 96 was just monumental, think of the basketball USA dream team in the 92 Olympics in Barcelona, my students were the Mathematics dream team in the country and I was the coach at 26, I felt great and I knew I was making a difference.
Then I discovered poker in 1997, and started to play in my local casino at El Paso, first the 1-3 Holdem and Stud games, 3 months later the 4-8 level and before the year ended I was already playing the biggest game in town, the 15-30 holdem game. I really loved the game and I was good at it, and soon I started to make some money, but of course some other areas in my life suffered because of the insane amount of time I was dedicating to poker. One of these areas was the Olympiad, after winning 3 years in a row, we came in 8th in 1998. I was really disappointed and tried to work harder for the 1999 contest, we made a little come back and placed 3rd that year (out of 32 states). In the 2000's we got 4th,4th,4th,3rd,4th, and 4th in 2005. We still were one of the elite states in the country; but the time I was using to work in the Olympiad was less and less each year, specially after 2003, when I started to play poker in the Internet.
So, 2006 was here, I'm still in charge of the Chihuahua State team, but I didn't work hard enough. I tried to make an heroic effort in the last month, but it was obvious it was not going to be good enough. The Olympiad contest is just too complex to expect a good result without working all year. We went to Zacatecas last week and we came in 18th place out of 32. It was a shameful result. The worst result Chihuahua had since 1991 was 9th; 18th was a nightmare. I felt terrible, I felt I was a total loser and I needed to do something, I'm trying to learn something from this experience. Interestingly enough, there are some similarities between my bad 2006 results in the Olympiad and those in poker. There is the "luck factor"; in the Olympiad, we lost our 3 best students, for different circumstances they couldn't go to the contest, 50% of the team, since 6 students participate from each state, so they have to be replaced with other 3, good, but obviously not as good as them. The luck factor in poker is obvious to all of you who have read (bore ?!) this blog in 2006. But the most important factor is the lack of preparation, the complacency factor. To think, you're so good at poker or Math Olympiad problems, that you'll just keep on winning no matter how lazy you are. I remember in 1994, after coming in 7th in the national contest, I really wanted to win; despite my young age, I developed a plan with the help of some friends to reshape all the things we used to do in the state; we developed a new model to work, and we work hard, really hard, we were really motivated, we had that hunger, we wanted to win it all. The results of all that hard work, came fast, we won 1995,1996 and 1997; our model was even imitated by a lot of states in the country; we were the team to beat in the national contest. But time passed and many states began to work hard, in the meantime we became complacent, we stopped working hard, hell, we stopped working, we didn't improve, we didn't change, and the results are there, many states passed us, they are just better than us now, some of them much better that it hurts. Same with poker, after my monster 2004,2005, I stopped working, I became complacent; too many young kids (and some not that young) with the hunger to win started to work hard and became much better players than me. The Olympiad and poker are some of my loves in my life so far, but I lost that passion, the drive to make you still a better player or coach every day; the complacency state is a terrible one. I need to wake up, I know today what it's my true level in Poker and Math, and I'm not satisfied, 18th place (or barely ahead in poker) is for losers and I'm not a loser, but I'm behaving like one and I need to change.
For the Math Olympiad, I already have great plans to reshape things once again, to innovate, I predict 1st place again in 3 years, and top 3 by 2007.
For Poker, it's a little more difficult to predict results, since in the Math Olympiad you can minimize the luck factor to around zero if you work hard enough, no such thing in poker; but of course you can work hard and play as perfect as you can every hand and they will come.

If you build it, they will come .....

Monday, October 23, 2006

Olimpiada de Matematicas, Sports Betting, Fantasy

These days I haven't played much (as if I had played much at all anytime during the year, what a lazy bum I am); because I have been so involved with the Mathematics Olympiad Contest in the State of Chihuahua, Mexico. Despite living in the US, I'm still the Chairman in that event and last week (Oct 13 - Oct 15) the State Contest was held in Chihuahua City (4 hours from El Paso). As usual it was a grueling event for us organizers, we slept like 2 hours in a 50 hours span, first, designing the exam and later grading them. After we decided the winners of the event, we came back to El Paso and I have spent a good time of this week working in the Official Page of the Chihuahua Mathematical Olympiad; it is in Spanish and contains links to beautiful Mathematical Olympiad Problems (most of the links are in English).
The Mathematical Olympiad is like my ex-wife, my love before I married poker, poker is still my love these days, but since we've been having some problems and I still get along really well with Olympiad, well, I decided to spend some time with Olympiad; Poker doesn't mind, I know.

I'll try to play some tourneys this week, I need to help my "old team" in this poker contest; I haven't played as much as I promised Sheets (the organizer and one of the best players in the net), and I feel kind of bad because of that; I'll try my best this last week to score some points for the team.

I have been also making an incursion in sports betting; as today basically I'm just betting arbitrages (sure things); you don't win much, but it's nice to win something while at the same time you're learning the business. I kind of like the research you need to do in Sports, since I've always liked to stare and study all kind of information. But lets see if Sports Betting is profitable enough to keep doing it, at the moment for sure beats having the money at the bank.

My Fantasy Football teams are doing pretty well, I'm in 4 leagues, last week I went 4-0 and this week I'm 3-0 with still a pending result. I'm such a pro Fantasy Player, if only you could win some real money playing Fantasy .....

Saturday, October 07, 2006

Another one, now Full Tilt $163



The streak continues, but again I couldn't maintain a big chip lead I had with around 13 players left, I tried to control the table and instead the table controlled me; and went from 1/13 to 6/9 when the Final Table started. Yesterday was a pretty good day, I played 4 tourneys and I almost made 2 final tables since I finished 12/1001 in the Paradise $30 Rebuys, here I was also the chip leader all the way from 50 to 30 players left, but the huge blinds took care of that. I played also the $150 in Stars and the $200 Friday Special in Party and I almost made the money in both of them; I lost again with AA in Party versus KT preflop. In Stars I made a mistake with KQ and then I went all in with 44 and I think I should have waited a little longer, so I consider it a mistake too. I have played some interesting hands in all these tourneys, I'll post them later.

Friday, October 06, 2006

Another Final table (Party Super Thursday), but meh




3 days in a row with top 10 performances, hope the streak continues. This Party FT was pretty disappointing, because I was one of the chip leaders with 11 left, but lost most of my stack when I played A5d in the big blind and the flop came AA5.
But it's nice to be winning flips again and the occasional suckout does not hurt. I did lose AA-TT in the Stars $150 and AT-A7 in Paradise yesterday though; but the bad luck ratio I think it's coming back to normal; and by normal I mean normal bad luck; I can stand normal bad luck as in my play does not deteriorate. And with some good luck, oh man, the sky is the limit.

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

WCOOP Report up to Event#4

WCOOP #1 Limit Razz $200+15 1297 entrants

1209 out of 1297

To be honest, I don't know if I played well this tourney, by my results I guess not. I did practice the day before playing some satellites to have a feeling for the game, actually I think the game it's pretty easy to master, but I guess I'll have to wait to prove it.

WCOOP #2 No Limit Holdem $500+30 4495 Entrants

4252 out of 4495

Pretty good tourney with a $2,247,500 prize pool, with $365,218 for first place.
Well, I get to play just one important hand:
-------------------------------------
Blinds: t10/t20
9 players

Stack sizes:
Hero (CO): t2460
BT: t2380

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with Ac8c
5 folds, Hero raises to t60, Button raises to t150, 2 folds, Hero calls t90 (pot was t240).

Flop: :6d :8d :8s (t330, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t225, Hero raises to t760, Button raises all-in t2230, Hero calls t1470 (pot was t3320).

Villian shows KsKd

Turn: Kh (t4790, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t4790)

River: 7d (t4790, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t4790)
---------------------------------------------

Analysis:

Peflop: My raise preflop was ok, I'm in LP with a nice hand and I'll be happy to play with the blinds if they want to. Button makes a little raise, usually this means a pretty strong hand unless you know the player since some good players use to do this with whatever shit they want to play in the button. I decided to call, I think my decision will be an easy one unless I catch an A, but still, I think I won't lose much when I'm behind and I can stack my opponent if he indeed has a big pair.
Flop: The flop was perfect, here you can lead but I prefer to check raise, I think I win more this way when they have nothing and make a continuation bet; and also it would be easier to stack them if they do have a big pair like it was the case. He cooperated and put all his chips in the pot with the overpair.
Turn: 2006's special.

I was pretty shortstacked after this hand, and went out a little after when I happily put all my remaining chips with JJ only to find somebody in the blinds with AA.

WCOOP#3 Pot Limit Omaha $300+20 with rebuys

I missed this one since I thought it would be at the same time as the previous 2 tourneys, but they changed the hour for the weekdays tournaments. Anyways, Omaha is so confusing with that many cards in your hand.

WCOOP#4 No Limit Match Play $200+15 2048 entrants

68 out of 2048

This was a heads up tourney, money was at 256, so you have to win your first 3 matches to cash. I'm no expert in HU play, but I usually have done well the few times I have played HU tourneys. I won my first 4 matches against pretty good players, usually they were more aggressive than me and I think I adjusted pretty well versus their aggression. My 5th opponent was also good, but I think, at least 3 of the previous 4 were better than him, he was less aggressive than me and i think my mistake was that I failed to adjust properly to this fact.

I think the most important hand in that last match up was this one:

----------------------------
Blinds: t400/t800
2 players

Stack sizes:
SB: t23520
Hero: t24480

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is BB with AhQd
SB calls t400 (pot was t1200), Hero raises to t2400, SB calls t1600 (pot was t3200).

Flop: :2s :6h :9d (t4800, 2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets t2400, Hero raises to t5600, SB calls t3200 (pot was t12800).

Turn: :7s (t16000, 2 players)
Hero bets t6400, SB calls t6400 (pot was t22400).

River: :2c (t28800, 2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks.

Results:
Final pot: t28800
Hero showed Ah Qd
Villian showed Jd 9c
-------------------------------------

I think I did my best to represent an overpair, I think the check-raise in the flop and the strong bet in the turn were pretty good, I couldn't fire another barrel in the river, since in my mind he was calling. In retrospect I think I shouldn't make any sophisticated plays versus this kind of opponent since he was pretty straightforward and more willing to call, so I should have changed my strategy with him; being just a little more aggressive than him and value-bet strongly my good hands, but I didn't change gears with him.

I was pretty upset with myself after the tourney, I just won $816, but I felt I didn't play my best in my last match, I played pretty good poker the first 4 matches against stronger players but I didn't against this player, he was good but not as good as some of the previous ones. Besides, I was pretty distracted doing some other things at the time, I was in a conference call, my little kid was crying and I didn't sleep the night before. So, my judgement wasn't the best. Luckily I can correct some of these things for future tourneys, and it's good to be playing poker again.

Saturday, September 16, 2006

WCOOP

Back to poker !!

I'll play most of the events of the WCOOP, the World Championship of Online Poker in PokerStars. There will be 18 tournaments between today and October 1st and hopefully I can play some 12 of them. LOL, this is almost the total number of online tourneys I have played in the last 2 months. Lets see if things change or if I go busto, haha, wish me luck. In this pretty moment I'm playing a satellite to the first event, a $215 Razz tournament; Razz is fun, garbage cards are the nuts !!!

Monday, September 04, 2006

Want $1000 ?

I have not played almost at all, I have not written, basically I have not done anything, anxiety attacks and depression got the best of me these days; I'll probably make a post about this in the future.
I just want to tell you right now about this bet. There is a sportsbook that is offering a sick promotion on the Pittsburgh-Miami game next Thursday, you need to bet $1,100 US dollars to Pittsburgh, if Pittsburgh wins, you win $1000 dollars, and the beauty is that if Miami wins then the sportsbook refunds you your $1,100 and you lose $0. Incredible !!. Too good to be true, yes, but it is, I have done some research and it looks like a legit bet and promotion and it does make sense for the sportsbook from a marketing point of view. So, if you have $1,100 in your Neteller account or have $1,100 you can use, this is it, even if you don't bet sports (I don't); this promotion is just too good to miss. If you want to do it, please follow this link to the promotion, you can read the details in the home page. Basically you need to open an account, fund your account with $1,100 and make the bet in the sportsbook (don't confuse with the sports exchange, the bet has to be made in the sportsbook). You also need to bet exactly $1,100 to Pittsburgh with the line such that you will win $1000 and you can't hedge (making a bet to Miami). The value of this promotion is easily $500; I made it when the line was PIT -5, but since "Big Ben" (the PIT QB) had surgery yesterday, he won't play next Thursday, so the line today is EVEN, a great line for the people doing the bet today and of course pretty bad news for all of us who already made the bet at -5. Hopefully you have the money to make it. It's one of those rare pretty good promotions that happen from time to time.
Now, back to my hole.