My Oscar Predictions

Since after my January NFL debacle, I'm not betting for a while; I won't bet this time for the Oscars, but still I love to predict the winners and here they are my predictions:


BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

DIRECTOR
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

Since Julie is the overwhelming favorite (I don't know exactly why), there's value in betting for Cotillard. I still think Julie has the odds to win, but I liked Marion more and as a gambling man, I'm taking Marion.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Here I think there's value betting both, Swinton and Ryan; Cate is the favorite but I don't see her winning this.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Diablo Cody, Juno
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Sarah Polley, Away from Her
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Beaufort, Israel
The Counterfeiters, Austria
Katyn, Poland
Mongol, Kazakhstan
12, Russia

ANIMATED FEATURE
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up

ORIGINAL SCORE
Dario Marianelli, Atonement
Alberto Iglesias, The Kite Runner
James Newton Howard, Michael Clayton
Michael Giacchino, Ratatouille
Marco Beltrami, 3:10 to Yuma

ORIGINAL SONG
"Falling Slowly", Once
"Happy Working Song", Enchanted
"Raise It Up", August Rush
"So Close", Enchanted
"That's How You Know", Enchanted

ART DIRECTION
Arthur Max, Beth A. Rubino, American Gangster
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer, Atonement
Dennis Gassner, Anna Pinnock, The Golden Compass
Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo, Sweeney Todd
Jack Fisk, Jim Erickson, There Will Be Blood

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Seamus McGarvey, Atonement
Janusz Kaminski, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Roger Deakins, No Country for Old Men
Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood

COSTUME DESIGN
Albert Wolsky, Across the Universe
Jacqueline Durran, Atonement
Alexandra Byrne, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Marit Allen, La Vie en Rose
Colleen Atwood, Sweeney Todd

Here, I'm split between Atonement and Sweeney; if the Academy decides Atwood has already too many Oscars (2), Durran may end up winning

MAKEUP
Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald, La Vie en Rose
Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji, Norbit
Ve Neill and Martin Samuel, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance

No end in Sight is the favorite, but I just love Michael Moore, and Sicko is a pretty good film

SOUND MIXING
Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis, The Bourne Ultimatum
Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland, No Country for Old Men
Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane, Ratatouille
Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe, 3:10 to Yuma
Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin, Transformers

SOUND EDITING
Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg, The Bourne Ultimatum
Skip Lievsay, No Country for Old Men
Randy Thom and Michael Silvers, Ratatouille
Matthew Wood, There Will Be Blood
Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins, Transformers

VISUAL EFFECTS
Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood, The Golden Compass
John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier, Transformers

FILM EDITING
Christopher Rouse, The Bourne Ultimatum
Juliette Welfling, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jay Cassidy, Into the Wild
Roderick Jaynes, No Country for Old Men
Dylan Tichenor, There Will Be Blood

Prery rare a film without best pic nomination wins here, so NCFOM may be a better bet, but I still think Bourne will take the Oscar

SHORT FILM – ANIMATED
"I Met the Walrus"
"Madame Tutli-Putli"
"Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)"
"My Love (Moya Lyubov)"
"Peter & the Wolf"

SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION
"At Night"
"Il Supplente (The Substitute)"
"Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)"
"Tanghi Argentini"
"The Tonto Woman"

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
"Freeheld"
"La Corona (The Crown)"
"Salim Baba"
"Sari's Mother"