Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Monday tourneys
I played 2 tourneys on Monday, none on Sunday, my first 2 since May 10. I keep getting deep in the tourneys, but not deep enough. I was 17th out of 413 on the Full Tilt $163 for $434 and 19th out of 1069 on the Stars $162 for $673. Of course pretty disappointing as usual. I think I made some mistakes in the Full Tilt one, especially a bluff going wrong that crippled me. In the Stars one, I'm not sure about my last decision of going all in from the BB with A7h when the button raised to 18k, I have only like 43k and was the short stack at the time, I don't have too much fold equity there and besides that the jump between 19th and 18th was $500 (but of course 1st place was $33,000); but I figured he was stealing and to have the best hand, unfortunately he had 99 and no ace or hearts came to rescue me. The important thing is despite almost not playing tourneys I keep getting deep on them. After that I played a little 5-10 NL and I won like $100. Sunday and Monday were pretty good for my sports bets, I won around $2000, hopefully the streak continues and I can get even on Sports.
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
My adventures as a sports bettor
So far they have been terrible, I started late last year and kind of seriously in February, and not counting Movie bets, I'm losing around 7k betting NBA, NCAA basketball, MLB, MMA, Box, well, almost everything. And I can't say I have been lazy, I've worked my ass trying to learn, reading books and all over the internet, comparing lines, shopping, finding arbitrages, everything, but it's just too hard. I'm about to give up on Sports, the only thing I've beaten so far is movie awards, I won around 6.5k between the Golden Globes and the Oscars. Basically I have won in the only events I have a good amount of knowledge. Following people with "knowledge" on other areas has been a disaster so far. So, until I have an amount of knowledge of baseball, basketball, MMA fighting and other sports at least comparable to my movie awards, I would be better off not betting at all. But I can't help it for now, I love sports and it's so much fun !!
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Pretty good all night sesion 5-10 NL
I had a pretty good session playing from 11PM to about 6AM. I played 5-10 NL 6 handed on Stars and Full Tilt, 3 tables. At the end I won almost 8k, and I finished April with good numbers, winning in cash games and winning in tournaments (well, I only win like $600 on tourneys, but much better than losing).
The most interesting hand I played this night was the following:
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
6 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $988
Hero: $2666.75
CO: $1580.75
Button: $2240.25
SB: $1005
BB: $955
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with
UTG folds, Hero raises to $35, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.
Flop:
($150, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $80, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.
Turn:
($470, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $400, Button raises all-in $2125.25, SB calls all-in $890, !! Hero folds !!, CO calls all-in $1065.75.
Uncalled bets: $659.5 returned to Button.
River:
($3715.75, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $3140, Sidepot 1: $1151.5)
Results:
Final pot: $3715.75
CO showed
and won $4,288.50
Button showed
SB showed
The most interesting hand I played this night was the following:
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
6 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $988
Hero: $2666.75
CO: $1580.75
Button: $2240.25
SB: $1005
BB: $955
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with
UTG folds, Hero raises to $35, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.
Flop:
($150, 4 players)SB checks, Hero bets $80, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.
Turn:
($470, 4 players)SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $400, Button raises all-in $2125.25, SB calls all-in $890, !! Hero folds !!, CO calls all-in $1065.75.
Uncalled bets: $659.5 returned to Button.
River:
($3715.75, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $3140, Sidepot 1: $1151.5)Results:
Final pot: $3715.75
CO showed
and won $4,288.50Button showed
SB showed
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
A difficult fold in a Final Table
This was an interesting hand I played in the Final Table of the Sunday $200+15 Stars Warm-Up:
5 players left
Payouts: 5th is 18k, 4th is 23k, 1st is 80k
Stacks are between 2 Million and 5M
Blinds are 100k-200k with 10k ante
BodogAri is in the button with around 2.3M
I'm in the CO with around 3.1M
Both blinds cover us.
I open to 600k with AT
Ari reraises to 1.9M leaving himself with 400k (basically AI)
Your move?
I have played many tournaments with Ari before, including some final tables. I knew he knew I was calling his raise because of the size of my raise and my chip count, so he knew his FE (fold equity) was almost zero. So basically he should have a good hand and his move was legit. I thought for a while, didn't like my AT and folded.
Any comments?
5 players left
Payouts: 5th is 18k, 4th is 23k, 1st is 80k
Stacks are between 2 Million and 5M
Blinds are 100k-200k with 10k ante
BodogAri is in the button with around 2.3M
I'm in the CO with around 3.1M
Both blinds cover us.
I open to 600k with AT
Ari reraises to 1.9M leaving himself with 400k (basically AI)
Your move?
I have played many tournaments with Ari before, including some final tables. I knew he knew I was calling his raise because of the size of my raise and my chip count, so he knew his FE (fold equity) was almost zero. So basically he should have a good hand and his move was legit. I thought for a while, didn't like my AT and folded.
Any comments?
Monday, April 23, 2007
It's update time !!
I think this is the longest I have gone without writing anything in the blog. I spent all night playing 5-10 NL and did pretty well, so, I'm happy and ready to write something.
It should be easy to write a post every day, I write plenty of posts in the 2+2 forums, so, from now on, I'll simply copy and paste some of my posts from 2+2 if I don't have something new to add to the blog.
One of my last posts in the 2+2 forums was the following:
You'll die in 6 hours
"With all my experience in life; it looks to me that everybody lives like they will never die; in practice, everybody thinks is immortal. When you think about death, you think about it like something that is going to happen in a very distant future. But what about if you know you're dying today.
Suppose you know you will die in 6 hours (In order to make the experiment interesting you really need to imagine it, picture it, you're dying !!). What would you do? How will you spend those last 6 hours? and why? "
Pretty interesting responses so far, if you want to take the time and read them over there, and of course it would be nice if you post your response here in the blog (If there's anybody left who reads this blog)
About poker, these last days I've been taking shots at 5-10 NL, I've already taken shots at 1-2, 2-4 and 3-6, so, what the hell, why not 5-10?, well, the reason I shouldn't "It's the bankroll, stupid"; so far I've done well at all the levels, but of course not enough hands played to know for sure if I don't suck, you know me, I just can't put the hours, that's one of my principal problems as a poker player.
About tournaments, I played exactly ZERO, NADA, in March, so, I decided to make a bet for April with some internet friends from 2+2, the proposition was something like:
"PROP Sirio to have a April winning month on tournaments played on Stars and Full Tilt (they must be easily traceable, by OPR for example). Minimum to have action on the YES is 30 tourneys. If I play less than 30 tourneys, the NO wins, doesn't matter if I won the Sunday Million or whatever."
Grafyx, a pretty good tournament player took the bet, so I have a $400 bet with him, I need to play at least 30 tournaments with buy-ins higher to $50 (he needs to play 50) in April and have a winning month. I think I'm on pace to do both, play the 30 tourneys and win $$ on the month. So far I've played 17 tournaments on Poker Stars and 6 tourneys on Full Tilt, with 1 week still to go, it must be easy to satisfy the quota, and since I already have 2 final tables, I think the $$ thing is also done.
You can check my stats on OPR:
sirio11 Poker Stars
sirio11 Full Tilt
2 final tables in 23 tourneys, I got 9th in the big Sunday Second chance on Stars ($200+15), and 3rd in a $75 tourney on Full Tilt:
Pretty disappointing finishes (Are there any other kind?) with my usual bad beats on key hands in the final table, AcJc vs Kc9c with 10 left in the Stars and 33 vs 22 in the Full Tilt with 4 left; but at least I'm winning money, and I'm playing !!!.
So, that's it for today, let's hope I'll write an entry every day again. Blogging is easy, blogging is easy, blogging is easy, blogging is easy, blogging is easy, blogging is easy, blogging is easy, ........, if I repeat it enough times, I'll believe it, ha. Just do it.
It should be easy to write a post every day, I write plenty of posts in the 2+2 forums, so, from now on, I'll simply copy and paste some of my posts from 2+2 if I don't have something new to add to the blog.
One of my last posts in the 2+2 forums was the following:
You'll die in 6 hours
"With all my experience in life; it looks to me that everybody lives like they will never die; in practice, everybody thinks is immortal. When you think about death, you think about it like something that is going to happen in a very distant future. But what about if you know you're dying today.
Suppose you know you will die in 6 hours (In order to make the experiment interesting you really need to imagine it, picture it, you're dying !!). What would you do? How will you spend those last 6 hours? and why? "
Pretty interesting responses so far, if you want to take the time and read them over there, and of course it would be nice if you post your response here in the blog (If there's anybody left who reads this blog)
About poker, these last days I've been taking shots at 5-10 NL, I've already taken shots at 1-2, 2-4 and 3-6, so, what the hell, why not 5-10?, well, the reason I shouldn't "It's the bankroll, stupid"; so far I've done well at all the levels, but of course not enough hands played to know for sure if I don't suck, you know me, I just can't put the hours, that's one of my principal problems as a poker player.
About tournaments, I played exactly ZERO, NADA, in March, so, I decided to make a bet for April with some internet friends from 2+2, the proposition was something like:
"PROP Sirio to have a April winning month on tournaments played on Stars and Full Tilt (they must be easily traceable, by OPR for example). Minimum to have action on the YES is 30 tourneys. If I play less than 30 tourneys, the NO wins, doesn't matter if I won the Sunday Million or whatever."
Grafyx, a pretty good tournament player took the bet, so I have a $400 bet with him, I need to play at least 30 tournaments with buy-ins higher to $50 (he needs to play 50) in April and have a winning month. I think I'm on pace to do both, play the 30 tourneys and win $$ on the month. So far I've played 17 tournaments on Poker Stars and 6 tourneys on Full Tilt, with 1 week still to go, it must be easy to satisfy the quota, and since I already have 2 final tables, I think the $$ thing is also done.
You can check my stats on OPR:
sirio11 Poker Stars
sirio11 Full Tilt
2 final tables in 23 tourneys, I got 9th in the big Sunday Second chance on Stars ($200+15), and 3rd in a $75 tourney on Full Tilt:
Pretty disappointing finishes (Are there any other kind?) with my usual bad beats on key hands in the final table, AcJc vs Kc9c with 10 left in the Stars and 33 vs 22 in the Full Tilt with 4 left; but at least I'm winning money, and I'm playing !!!.
So, that's it for today, let's hope I'll write an entry every day again. Blogging is easy, blogging is easy, blogging is easy, blogging is easy, blogging is easy, blogging is easy, blogging is easy, ........, if I repeat it enough times, I'll believe it, ha. Just do it.
Sunday, March 04, 2007
Agnostic gambling: February tournament report
February was my best poker month in a while. I had a 66% in the money in Poker Stars tournaments and 33% final table appearances, haha what a month in Stars. Of course I played exactly 3 tournaments in Poker Stars all month.
I played 13 tournaments total in February, since I played 10 tournaments at Mansion (one of the benefits of living in the border). There (Mansion) I had a 10% in the money and 10% final table (1 out of 10).
So, pretty good month, played 13 tournaments, cashed 3 times, with 2 final tables. Most importantly I had a whopping 1400% ROI. Yuhuuuu!!!
The 10 mansion tournaments ($100 buy in) had around 500-600 people each, I made a final table and won around $3500.
My 3 Poker Stars results as you can check in this pretty good database site were:
PS $162 NLH, 16 out of 922 for $1,037
PS $162 NLH, 1005 out of 1017 for $0
PS $215 NLH, 5 out of 2053 for $18,354.
The 5th place was in one of the $200 Sunday tournaments on Stars, the "Warm up" one. It's my best result in a while, I don't know why I didn't even post it here, probably because I don't care too much about this blog nowadays, but here is the tournament results picture:
This is the first time I make a final table in one of the big $200 Sunday tournaments at Stars. I had made the final 2 tables several times before, but never the final table. Now I just need to win one.
So, I won more than $20k in 13 tournaments, which is pretty cool. The funny thing is that Poker was a distant 2nd or 3rd place of my job activities during February. Maybe that's the answer for variance. You want to have good poker results?, then go and do something else, just don't care about poker and the results will come. There you have it, the recipe for tournament poker success !!
Is this month a great thing?. Meh, not really, I still hate poker, variance sucks !!!
10 more months like this one, and I may consider forgiving the Poker Gods and come back to the belief there's a poker heaven. Until then, I'll continue with my agnostic gambling.
I played 13 tournaments total in February, since I played 10 tournaments at Mansion (one of the benefits of living in the border). There (Mansion) I had a 10% in the money and 10% final table (1 out of 10).
So, pretty good month, played 13 tournaments, cashed 3 times, with 2 final tables. Most importantly I had a whopping 1400% ROI. Yuhuuuu!!!
The 10 mansion tournaments ($100 buy in) had around 500-600 people each, I made a final table and won around $3500.
My 3 Poker Stars results as you can check in this pretty good database site were:
PS $162 NLH, 16 out of 922 for $1,037
PS $162 NLH, 1005 out of 1017 for $0
PS $215 NLH, 5 out of 2053 for $18,354.
The 5th place was in one of the $200 Sunday tournaments on Stars, the "Warm up" one. It's my best result in a while, I don't know why I didn't even post it here, probably because I don't care too much about this blog nowadays, but here is the tournament results picture:
This is the first time I make a final table in one of the big $200 Sunday tournaments at Stars. I had made the final 2 tables several times before, but never the final table. Now I just need to win one.
So, I won more than $20k in 13 tournaments, which is pretty cool. The funny thing is that Poker was a distant 2nd or 3rd place of my job activities during February. Maybe that's the answer for variance. You want to have good poker results?, then go and do something else, just don't care about poker and the results will come. There you have it, the recipe for tournament poker success !!
Is this month a great thing?. Meh, not really, I still hate poker, variance sucks !!!
10 more months like this one, and I may consider forgiving the Poker Gods and come back to the belief there's a poker heaven. Until then, I'll continue with my agnostic gambling.
Monday, February 26, 2007
Handicapping the Oscars
Pretty good night in general, just disappointed by Cars and Pan's. Specially Pan's, it's pretty difficult to understand how a foreign language movie win 3 Oscars and can't win the foreign language category, just weird, but I kind of see this coming, and that was the reason I didn't bet a lot in Pan's Labyrinth despite the fact it was the movie I liked the most last year. I think The Departed won just because of Scorsese, I'm still happy for him, since he's a great director and has several masterpieces (The Departed not being one of them). I think The Departed won't be remembered as a great movie with the years and Pan's Labyrinth will stand the test of time. It's such a wonderful film.
I won like 28 units in the Oscars, and with the 35 units I won in the Golden Globes; that's a pretty good 63 units from movie awards season.
I think I'm a professional movie awards handicapper now, who the hell needs poker :) .
I won like 28 units in the Oscars, and with the 35 units I won in the Golden Globes; that's a pretty good 63 units from movie awards season.
I think I'm a professional movie awards handicapper now, who the hell needs poker :) .
Sunday, February 25, 2007
My Oscar bets
These are the bets I placed all over for the Oscars:
Best Picture:
Babel: 5.7 units to win 21.5 units
The Departed: 7.4 units to win 10.02 units
If Babel, I win 14.14 units; if Departed I win 4.5 units; any other I lose 13 units.
Best Actor:
Forrest Whitaker: 25.15 units to win 5.65 units
Best Actress:
Mirren: 10 units to win 0.5 units
Best Supporting Actor:
Alan Arkin: 3 units to win 9.8 units
Eddie Murphy: 5.1 units to win 4 units
If Arkin, I win 4.7 units; If Murphy, I win 1 unit; any other I lose 8.1 units.
Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Hudson: 31.3 units to win 7.85 units
Best Director:
Martin Scorsese: 20 units to win 4 units
Best Foreign Language Film:
Pan's Labyrinth: 4 units to win 1 unit
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Departed: 3.35 units to win 1 unit
Best Animated feature:
Cars: 11.64 units to win 4.4 units
Best Live Action Short Film:
West Bank Story: 4 units to win 20 units
Binta y la gran idea: 5 units to win 7.85 units
If West Bank Story, I win 15 units; if Binta I win 3.85 units; any other, I lose 9 units.
Best case scenario: I win 58 units
Worst case scenario: I lose 125.7 units
All this based in my analysis in the post below.
Go West Bank Story !!!
Go Babel !!!!
Best Picture:
Babel: 5.7 units to win 21.5 units
The Departed: 7.4 units to win 10.02 units
If Babel, I win 14.14 units; if Departed I win 4.5 units; any other I lose 13 units.
Best Actor:
Forrest Whitaker: 25.15 units to win 5.65 units
Best Actress:
Mirren: 10 units to win 0.5 units
Best Supporting Actor:
Alan Arkin: 3 units to win 9.8 units
Eddie Murphy: 5.1 units to win 4 units
If Arkin, I win 4.7 units; If Murphy, I win 1 unit; any other I lose 8.1 units.
Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Hudson: 31.3 units to win 7.85 units
Best Director:
Martin Scorsese: 20 units to win 4 units
Best Foreign Language Film:
Pan's Labyrinth: 4 units to win 1 unit
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Departed: 3.35 units to win 1 unit
Best Animated feature:
Cars: 11.64 units to win 4.4 units
Best Live Action Short Film:
West Bank Story: 4 units to win 20 units
Binta y la gran idea: 5 units to win 7.85 units
If West Bank Story, I win 15 units; if Binta I win 3.85 units; any other, I lose 9 units.
Best case scenario: I win 58 units
Worst case scenario: I lose 125.7 units
All this based in my analysis in the post below.
Go West Bank Story !!!
Go Babel !!!!
Oscar Predictions
Best picture:
This is between Departed, Babel and LMS. I think it really hurts LMS to not have a best director nomination, the last time a movie won without it, Driving Miss Daisy in 1989. It also doesn't have a editing nomination, last time a movie won without it, 1980, Ordinary people. Departed is the odds makers favorite, but I don't think the academy love it too much, since they just nominate Wahlberg in the acting categories despite having a terrific ensemble, besides Departed is just a movie about gangsters and the academy love movies with a "deep message", so, I'm going with Babel
My prediction: Babel
Best director:
This is Scorsese's award to lose, despite the Departed not being one of his best (3?,5?,10?) movies, this is the chance for the academy to recognize him.
My prediction: Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Possible upset: Paul Greengrass (United 93)
Best Leading Actor:
Forrest Whitaker has won basically all the important actor awards and I think the only reason he has no Helen Mirren's status as a super favorite, it's because Peter O'Toole is in the race. It will be O'Toole 8th nomination, he has not won once, despite the fact he won an honorary Oscar recently. I still think the good sense will prevail and the academy will award excellent actor Forrest Whitaker. Now, if only he could give a coherent speech ....
My prediction: Forrest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland as Idi Amin
Possible upset: Peter O'Toole
Best Leading Actress:
Do we really need to write something about this category? This is the lock of the century.
My Prediction: Helen Mirren - The Queen as Queen Elizabeth II
Possible Upset: Terrorists bombing the Kodak Theater before the announcement.
Best Supporting Actor:
Eddie Murphy has won almost all the important precursors, he is the favorite, but if the academy decides awarding 3 of the 4 acting awards to black people is just too much, Eddie is the weakest link. Besides Alan Arkin is a white old man, like a good segment of the academy, and his performance in Little Miss Sunshine is really good. I'm going with the 2nd favorite.
My prediction: Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine as "Grandpa Edwin Hoover"
Possible upset: Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children)
Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Hudson is the big favorite here, but it has happened before. Lauren Bacall was the big favorite in 1996, she won almost all the awards before, just to lose the Oscar to Juliette Binoche, hell, Juliette was even surprised, she didn't even have a speech !!. But I just don't see a Juliette this year, so, I'm going with Effie White.
My prediction: Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls as "Effie White"
Possible upset: Adriana Barraza (Babel)
Best Foreign Language Film:
Pan's Labyrinth was the best film I saw in 2006, I think it should be nominated for best picture. Pan's has 6 Oscar nominations which is unheard of for a Foreign Language movie, and it has a shot to be one of the most awarded movies in the night, so it's clearly the front runner in this category. It has won also the most precursors. Having said that, again, it has happened before, in 2001 Amelie had multiple nominations and still lost to Bosnia's No Man's Land. This year the upset could come from the German Film The Lives of Others which has been as critically acclaimed as Pan's and the Academy may want to reward both films, since Pan's is going to win at least one Oscar in some other categories.
My prediction: Pan's Labyrinth - Mexico
Possible upset: The Lives of Others - Germany
More predictions:
Original Screenplay: Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Adapted Screenplay: William Monahan, The Departed
Animated Feature: Cars
Cinematography: Children of Men
Art Direction: Pan's Labyrinth
Visual Effects: Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Costume: Dreamgirls
Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth
Editing: Babel
Score: The Queen
Sound: Dreamgirls
Song: "I need to wake up" An Inconvinient Truth
Sound Editing: Letters From Iwo Jima
Documentary Short: The Blood Of Yingzhou District
Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth
Animated Short: The Little Matchgirl
Live Action Short: West Bank Story
This is between Departed, Babel and LMS. I think it really hurts LMS to not have a best director nomination, the last time a movie won without it, Driving Miss Daisy in 1989. It also doesn't have a editing nomination, last time a movie won without it, 1980, Ordinary people. Departed is the odds makers favorite, but I don't think the academy love it too much, since they just nominate Wahlberg in the acting categories despite having a terrific ensemble, besides Departed is just a movie about gangsters and the academy love movies with a "deep message", so, I'm going with Babel
My prediction: Babel
Best director:
This is Scorsese's award to lose, despite the Departed not being one of his best (3?,5?,10?) movies, this is the chance for the academy to recognize him.
My prediction: Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Possible upset: Paul Greengrass (United 93)
Best Leading Actor:
Forrest Whitaker has won basically all the important actor awards and I think the only reason he has no Helen Mirren's status as a super favorite, it's because Peter O'Toole is in the race. It will be O'Toole 8th nomination, he has not won once, despite the fact he won an honorary Oscar recently. I still think the good sense will prevail and the academy will award excellent actor Forrest Whitaker. Now, if only he could give a coherent speech ....
My prediction: Forrest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland as Idi Amin
Possible upset: Peter O'Toole
Best Leading Actress:
Do we really need to write something about this category? This is the lock of the century.
My Prediction: Helen Mirren - The Queen as Queen Elizabeth II
Possible Upset: Terrorists bombing the Kodak Theater before the announcement.
Best Supporting Actor:
Eddie Murphy has won almost all the important precursors, he is the favorite, but if the academy decides awarding 3 of the 4 acting awards to black people is just too much, Eddie is the weakest link. Besides Alan Arkin is a white old man, like a good segment of the academy, and his performance in Little Miss Sunshine is really good. I'm going with the 2nd favorite.
My prediction: Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine as "Grandpa Edwin Hoover"
Possible upset: Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children)
Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Hudson is the big favorite here, but it has happened before. Lauren Bacall was the big favorite in 1996, she won almost all the awards before, just to lose the Oscar to Juliette Binoche, hell, Juliette was even surprised, she didn't even have a speech !!. But I just don't see a Juliette this year, so, I'm going with Effie White.
My prediction: Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls as "Effie White"
Possible upset: Adriana Barraza (Babel)
Best Foreign Language Film:
Pan's Labyrinth was the best film I saw in 2006, I think it should be nominated for best picture. Pan's has 6 Oscar nominations which is unheard of for a Foreign Language movie, and it has a shot to be one of the most awarded movies in the night, so it's clearly the front runner in this category. It has won also the most precursors. Having said that, again, it has happened before, in 2001 Amelie had multiple nominations and still lost to Bosnia's No Man's Land. This year the upset could come from the German Film The Lives of Others which has been as critically acclaimed as Pan's and the Academy may want to reward both films, since Pan's is going to win at least one Oscar in some other categories.
My prediction: Pan's Labyrinth - Mexico
Possible upset: The Lives of Others - Germany
More predictions:
Original Screenplay: Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Adapted Screenplay: William Monahan, The Departed
Animated Feature: Cars
Cinematography: Children of Men
Art Direction: Pan's Labyrinth
Visual Effects: Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Costume: Dreamgirls
Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth
Editing: Babel
Score: The Queen
Sound: Dreamgirls
Song: "I need to wake up" An Inconvinient Truth
Sound Editing: Letters From Iwo Jima
Documentary Short: The Blood Of Yingzhou District
Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth
Animated Short: The Little Matchgirl
Live Action Short: West Bank Story
Monday, January 29, 2007
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