Babel !!!

I did pretty well in the globes, basically I just missed Pan's Labyrinth in the foreign language category (The favorite Letters from Iwo Jima won), of all the bets I made. I'm excited for the Oscar season, I've always loved movies and I've been always a pretty good prognosticator in award season, but actually this is the first time I bet on it and I did pretty well, I won around $3500, thanks mainly to my Babel bets, I'm happy with the Babel winning, because of my bets of course, but also because this is a very good year for the Mexican film industry, with 3 very good movies by the three amigos, Babel by Alejandro Gonzalez Iñarrirtu, who won best director at Cannes Festival and best movie drama at the globes; Pan's Labyrinth by Guillermo Del Toro, Pan's won best picture by the National Society of Film Critics and has won many best foreign film awards; and Children of Man by Alfonso Cuaron, which just won best film in Vancouver.
I think there is a chance to win more good money in the Oscars, let's hope things go well.

Golden Globes results (Film)

Best Drama: Babel

Best Comedy/Musical: Dreamgirls

Best Actor Drama: Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland

Best Actress Drama: Helen Mirren - The Queen

Best Actor Comedy/Musical: Sacha Baron Cohen - Borat

Best Actress Comedy/Musical: Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada

Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls

Best Director: Martin Scorsese - The Departed

Best Screenplay: The Queen

Best Original Song: The Song of the Heart - Happy Feet

Best Original Score: The Painted Veil

Best Animated Feature: Cars

Best Foreign Language Film: Letters from Iwo Jima

My Golden Globe bets

Well, I have been traveling a lot, I think I will be back home by Monday. I have been playing more cash games and the year 2007 looks promising.
Today I want to share with you my Golden Globes picks, I bet some money to the following awards:

BEST DRAMATIC ACTRESS -WINNER HELEN MIRREN, "THE QUEEN" (-585) I bet 1170 to win 200

BEST DRAMATIC ACTOR -WINNER FOREST WHITAKER, "THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND" (-235) I bet 470 to win 200

SUPPORTING DRAMATIC ACTRESS -WINNER JENNIFER HUDSON, "DREAMGIRLS" (-300) I bet 600 to win 200


BEST ACTOR, COMEDY OR MUSICAL -WINNER SACHA BARON COHEN, "BORAT: CULTURAL LEARNINGS " (-415) I bet 160 to win 38

FOREIGN LANGUAGE PICTURE -WINNER "PAN’S LABYRINTH" (MEXICO) +1400 I bet 200 to win 2800

I have some bets also for DREAMGIRLS to best picture musical/comedy; right now Bodog has a great line 7/8, probably a mistake, since the lines at other sites have it at arount -600, but for some reason Bodog loves Borat, I think you should bet and enjoy the free $50.

I made almost all my bets last month and I think I got great lines, with the exception of Pan's Labyrinth, the rest of my bets are almost a lock (or so I think). For example, I got Helen Mirren at -585 and right now is at -1900, Forrest at -235, now at -335, Hudson at -300, now at -600, Sasha at -415, now at -510; all these bets are a lock, barring some terrible surprise. The only underdog I took was Pan's Labyrinth, but at +1400 it's a steal, the favorite in that category is Letters from Iwo Jima (-300) and while agree Letters is the front runner, no way Pan's is at +1400; Pan's is a wonderful movie, one of the best in this decade, if you haven't seen it, you're missing a masterpiece, go now !!; but of course I'm not betting because I like it, It has won the most Foreign Language awards to date, and Letters is losing steam, while Pan's is getting excellent reviews everywhere; the only problem it could be maybe they released Pan's a little too late to gain enough steam for the globes (next Monday January 15), but I hope it will.

Probably I'll make some more Golden Globes bets between today and Monday, but I need to do some analysis of the lines and some analysis of Globes history versus critics awards to find the best value.

I'm planning to do a megapost about my poker experience in 2006 before my birthday (January 29), 2006 was my first losing year in my poker career (since 1997) and there are a lot of lessons to be learned.

Playing AA in the 1st level

I got to play just one hand in the big Poker Stars Sunday tournament. I have been thinking about this hand and maybe I just need to make a monster reraise with a big pair in this level preflop, since they seem to play just about anything to flop big (my opponent had Ah9s in this hand). I don't really know, let me know your thoughts on the best way to play AA with deep stacks in the first level of the tourney.


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t40/t80
9 players
Converter


Stack sizes:
UTG: t10480
Hero: t9880
MP1: t7140
MP2: t7460
MP3: t10640
CO: t6640
Button: t18160
SB: t9000
BB: t10600


Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with
UTG folds, Hero calls t80 (pot was t120), 2 folds, MP3 raises to t240, 4 folds, Hero raises to t960, MP3 calls t720 (pot was t1320).


Flop: (t2040, 2 players)
Hero bets t960, MP3 calls t960 (pot was t3000).


Turn: (t3960, 2 players)
Hero is all-in t7960, MP3 calls t7960 (pot was t11920).


River: (t19880, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t19880)



Results:
Final pot: t19880
MP3 showed 9s Ah
Hero showed As Ac

November results

I played just 8 tournaments in November and played a grand total of 0 hours in cash games. All the tournaments I played were Stars tournaments, this is the list:

11/21/06 PS NLH $200+15 3088 out of 6733
11/26/06 PS NLH $200+15 194 out of 1050
11/28/06 PS NLH Rebuys $100+9 (Spent $309) 165 out of 197
11/28/06 PS NLH $100+9 49 out of 377
11/28/06 PS NLH $150+12 372 out of 956
11/30/06 PS NLH $300+20 558 out of 758
11/30/06 PS NLH $100+9 60 out of 270
11/30/06 PS NLH Rebuys $100+9 (Spent $309) 5 out of 167, FT, won $3,984.50

ITM: 1/8 FT: 1/8 Total Spent: $1748 (Rake: $98) Total won: $3,984.50 Profit: $2,236.50

I luckboxed my way to the FT in the last tournament I played in the month, besides that the rest of them were the usual amount of frustration. One good thing is I finished in the black and I'm ready to work in December, my goal is to play at least 100 tourneys. Let's see if I do it.

Stack size and calling an all in when reraised

Lurking in the 2+2 forum archives I found this post I made more than a year ago. Hope you like it and provide some comments about it:


Stack size and calling an all in when reraised (essay). 05/31/05 01:38 AM

This is a usual question in this forum. What is the size of your stack such that you're in desperate mode, or basically commited to call all in when somebody reraise you.

Lets suppose the size of your stack is S = 12x, x = big blind; and you decide to open raise in MP to 4x, and somebody reraise you to 12x, should you call?

The analysis is pretty simple. You need to call 8x for a 18x (12x + 4x and lets suppose there are 2x in the pot to begin with, this varies from 0.5x to 2.5x). So you have odds of 8 to 18 or 1 to 2.25. So basically your hand needs to be 100/(1+2.25) = 30% or better against your opponent range. These are pretty good odds, even with a hand like KJo you're 34% against a range of AA-55, AK-AT, KQ. Even with a AA-88, AK-AQ range, you're 32%, so you need to call.

Now, lets suppose S = 24x, same scenario and you're reraised all in or close to it in practice, like somebody reraised to 20x, you know you're going all in anyway. Now you need to call 20x for a 30x pot, giving you odds of 1:1.5 , now your hand needs to be 100/2.5 = 40% or better; against AA-88,AK-AQ you can not call with KJo, what about AJs? Nope, just 35%. Even AQo is 36.5%, you need better than AQs (39.8%) in this spot vs such range.

Now, lets do the analysis in general for this situation, your stack = S, if you raise to 4x and need to call all in, you need to call S-4 to win a S+6 pot. Then your odds are 1 to (S+6)/(S-4) doing some elementary math, this is 1 + 10/(S-4). With this fraction is easy to see that if you want 1:2 odds, then S=14. Then basically, anytime you're behind the 14x mark, you need to choose a hand to go all in that is just better than 33%.

We can even generalize this result. Instead of raising to 4x, lets suppose you raise to Mx and reraised all in. Now you need to call S - M for a S + M + 2 pot; then your odds are 1 to

(S+M+2)/(S-M) = (S-M+2M+2)/(S-M) = 1 + (2M+2)/(S-M)

Now if you want to get 1:2 odds then (2M+2)/(S-M) = 1

this is 2M+2 = S-M this is M = (S-2)/3 !!! ... (sirio's raising factor )

Then you can manipulate the odds you're getting with your raise (how nice is that!!), if S = 14 then M = 4 is optimal to get 1:2 ; and if your stack = 17x, then M = 5 is the optimal raise to get 1:2 odds.

Comments?

A humility lesson from the Mathematical Olympiad I can use for poker

As you could see by my lack of posting I have not played any poker at all in the last 3 weeks. All my energy has been used in training students for the National Mathematical Olympiad in Mexico and then going to the contest in the city of Zacatecas.
I started teaching at the high school level in 1987 (I was a pretty young high school teacher at 17), I started teaching at the college level since 1992 and I have been involved as a professor in the Olympiad contests since 1991, I've been pretty successful in those since some of my students have won State, National and International contests since then. The Golden age was the period between 1995 and 1997, when the State (Chihuahua) I was responsible for the academic training won the National Contest 3 years in a row, something unheard of at the time. The win in 96 was just monumental, think of the basketball USA dream team in the 92 Olympics in Barcelona, my students were the Mathematics dream team in the country and I was the coach at 26, I felt great and I knew I was making a difference.
Then I discovered poker in 1997, and started to play in my local casino at El Paso, first the 1-3 Holdem and Stud games, 3 months later the 4-8 level and before the year ended I was already playing the biggest game in town, the 15-30 holdem game. I really loved the game and I was good at it, and soon I started to make some money, but of course some other areas in my life suffered because of the insane amount of time I was dedicating to poker. One of these areas was the Olympiad, after winning 3 years in a row, we came in 8th in 1998. I was really disappointed and tried to work harder for the 1999 contest, we made a little come back and placed 3rd that year (out of 32 states). In the 2000's we got 4th,4th,4th,3rd,4th, and 4th in 2005. We still were one of the elite states in the country; but the time I was using to work in the Olympiad was less and less each year, specially after 2003, when I started to play poker in the Internet.
So, 2006 was here, I'm still in charge of the Chihuahua State team, but I didn't work hard enough. I tried to make an heroic effort in the last month, but it was obvious it was not going to be good enough. The Olympiad contest is just too complex to expect a good result without working all year. We went to Zacatecas last week and we came in 18th place out of 32. It was a shameful result. The worst result Chihuahua had since 1991 was 9th; 18th was a nightmare. I felt terrible, I felt I was a total loser and I needed to do something, I'm trying to learn something from this experience. Interestingly enough, there are some similarities between my bad 2006 results in the Olympiad and those in poker. There is the "luck factor"; in the Olympiad, we lost our 3 best students, for different circumstances they couldn't go to the contest, 50% of the team, since 6 students participate from each state, so they have to be replaced with other 3, good, but obviously not as good as them. The luck factor in poker is obvious to all of you who have read (bore ?!) this blog in 2006. But the most important factor is the lack of preparation, the complacency factor. To think, you're so good at poker or Math Olympiad problems, that you'll just keep on winning no matter how lazy you are. I remember in 1994, after coming in 7th in the national contest, I really wanted to win; despite my young age, I developed a plan with the help of some friends to reshape all the things we used to do in the state; we developed a new model to work, and we work hard, really hard, we were really motivated, we had that hunger, we wanted to win it all. The results of all that hard work, came fast, we won 1995,1996 and 1997; our model was even imitated by a lot of states in the country; we were the team to beat in the national contest. But time passed and many states began to work hard, in the meantime we became complacent, we stopped working hard, hell, we stopped working, we didn't improve, we didn't change, and the results are there, many states passed us, they are just better than us now, some of them much better that it hurts. Same with poker, after my monster 2004,2005, I stopped working, I became complacent; too many young kids (and some not that young) with the hunger to win started to work hard and became much better players than me. The Olympiad and poker are some of my loves in my life so far, but I lost that passion, the drive to make you still a better player or coach every day; the complacency state is a terrible one. I need to wake up, I know today what it's my true level in Poker and Math, and I'm not satisfied, 18th place (or barely ahead in poker) is for losers and I'm not a loser, but I'm behaving like one and I need to change.
For the Math Olympiad, I already have great plans to reshape things once again, to innovate, I predict 1st place again in 3 years, and top 3 by 2007.
For Poker, it's a little more difficult to predict results, since in the Math Olympiad you can minimize the luck factor to around zero if you work hard enough, no such thing in poker; but of course you can work hard and play as perfect as you can every hand and they will come.

If you build it, they will come .....

Olimpiada de Matematicas, Sports Betting, Fantasy

These days I haven't played much (as if I had played much at all anytime during the year, what a lazy bum I am); because I have been so involved with the Mathematics Olympiad Contest in the State of Chihuahua, Mexico. Despite living in the US, I'm still the Chairman in that event and last week (Oct 13 - Oct 15) the State Contest was held in Chihuahua City (4 hours from El Paso). As usual it was a grueling event for us organizers, we slept like 2 hours in a 50 hours span, first, designing the exam and later grading them. After we decided the winners of the event, we came back to El Paso and I have spent a good time of this week working in the Official Page of the Chihuahua Mathematical Olympiad; it is in Spanish and contains links to beautiful Mathematical Olympiad Problems (most of the links are in English).
The Mathematical Olympiad is like my ex-wife, my love before I married poker, poker is still my love these days, but since we've been having some problems and I still get along really well with Olympiad, well, I decided to spend some time with Olympiad; Poker doesn't mind, I know.

I'll try to play some tourneys this week, I need to help my "old team" in this poker contest; I haven't played as much as I promised Sheets (the organizer and one of the best players in the net), and I feel kind of bad because of that; I'll try my best this last week to score some points for the team.

I have been also making an incursion in sports betting; as today basically I'm just betting arbitrages (sure things); you don't win much, but it's nice to win something while at the same time you're learning the business. I kind of like the research you need to do in Sports, since I've always liked to stare and study all kind of information. But lets see if Sports Betting is profitable enough to keep doing it, at the moment for sure beats having the money at the bank.

My Fantasy Football teams are doing pretty well, I'm in 4 leagues, last week I went 4-0 and this week I'm 3-0 with still a pending result. I'm such a pro Fantasy Player, if only you could win some real money playing Fantasy .....

Another one, now Full Tilt $163

The streak continues, but again I couldn't maintain a big chip lead I had with around 13 players left, I tried to control the table and instead the table controlled me; and went from 1/13 to 6/9 when the Final Table started. Yesterday was a pretty good day, I played 4 tourneys and I almost made 2 final tables since I finished 12/1001 in the Paradise $30 Rebuys, here I was also the chip leader all the way from 50 to 30 players left, but the huge blinds took care of that. I played also the $150 in Stars and the $200 Friday Special in Party and I almost made the money in both of them; I lost again with AA in Party versus KT preflop. In Stars I made a mistake with KQ and then I went all in with 44 and I think I should have waited a little longer, so I consider it a mistake too. I have played some interesting hands in all these tourneys, I'll post them later.

Another Final table (Party Super Thursday), but meh

3 days in a row with top 10 performances, hope the streak continues. This Party FT was pretty disappointing, because I was one of the chip leaders with 11 left, but lost most of my stack when I played A5d in the big blind and the flop came AA5.
But it's nice to be winning flips again and the occasional suckout does not hurt. I did lose AA-TT in the Stars $150 and AT-A7 in Paradise yesterday though; but the bad luck ratio I think it's coming back to normal; and by normal I mean normal bad luck; I can stand normal bad luck as in my play does not deteriorate. And with some good luck, oh man, the sky is the limit.

One small step